Since 2000, gold has gradually evolved from a traditional safe-haven asset to a core target of global macroeconomic, geopolitical and monetary policy games in the foreign exchange market. The trend of XAU/USD (gold against the US dollar) has become a "barometer" of global capital sentiment and liquidity.
2000–2011: Super Rising Cycle
In early 2000, the price of gold was about $270 per ounce. At that time, the US dollar was strong and investors had limited interest in gold. However, with the 9/11 incident, the Iraq War and the outbreak of the subprime mortgage crisis, global risk aversion soared. Especially after the 2008 financial crisis, the Federal Reserve implemented quantitative easing (QE), the US dollar depreciated, and gold attracted a large amount of capital inflows. In 2011, the price of gold hit a historical high of about $1,920.
2012–2015: Strong US dollar and falling gold prices
The Federal Reserve gradually withdrew from quantitative easing, the market expected interest rate hikes, and the US dollar strengthened. In addition, as the global economy gradually recovers, the attractiveness of gold as a safe-haven tool has declined, and the price of gold has once fallen back to $1,050. This stage has dealt a heavy blow to investors who hold a large position in gold, and the leverage mechanism of the foreign exchange market has also magnified the risk of losses.
2016–2019: Volatile rebound and political risk trading
Affected by Brexit, trade wars, and political uncertainty in the United States, gold has regained its safe-haven role. The Fed's pace of interest rate hikes has slowed down, and the US dollar index has fluctuated at a high level. The price of gold has gradually climbed above $1,500. The market has entered a period of volatility dominated by "event-driven", and intraday trading strategies are generally active.
2020–2022: Epidemic and inflation push new highs
The COVID-19 pandemic caused the global economy to shut down. The Federal Reserve quickly cut interest rates to zero and implemented large-scale asset purchases. Gold soared again amid panic and inflation expectations. In August 2020, the price of gold broke through $2,070. In 2022, global inflation soared, and the Federal Reserve turned to aggressive interest rate hikes. Gold was under pressure to fall for a short time, but it still maintained strong support.
2023–2025: Structural strength and central bank buying
After 2023, the continued conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the unstable situation in the Middle East, and the strengthening trend of "de-dollarization" have prompted central banks in emerging market countries to increase their gold reserve allocation. At the same time, the US fiscal deficit has expanded and the debt crisis has intensified, and gold has become an important tool for many countries to hedge against US dollar risks. In 2025, XAU/USD will run between $2,300 and $2,500, showing a strong shock pattern.